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[1] A study published last month in the journal Nature revealed that the economic cost of carbon emissions is significantly greater than previously estimated. This research links major polluters to tens of trillions of dollars in climate-related damages worldwide. The study assessed the impact of human-caused warming on economic growth and attributes a portion of global damages to specific emitters, ranging from large economies to oil companies.
[2] The findings come amid a surge of lawsuits aimed at holding fossil fuel producers and other businesses with high carbon emissions accountable for climate-related “loss and damage”. Claimants argue that major polluters should be held legally responsible for their significant contributions to climate change and the extreme weather events that result from it, especially in poorer nations.
[3] The study did not aim to address the “legal and ethical” questions surrounding compensation, said Marshall Burke, a professor at Stanford University and the lead author of the study. “Our goal was first and foremost scientific, but we hope to contribute to the broader policy discussion of how to measure loss and damage and what to do about it,” Burke said. He also noted that the study provides “guidance” on the scale of potential costs and offers a framework for estimating how specific emissions from particular sources at specific times cause damage worldwide.
[4] The study assessed the impact of rising temperatures on economic factors, including labour productivity and agriculture, as well as associated climate-driven weather extremes. US emissions between 1990 and 2020 were the largest source of estimated global damages at US$10.2 trillion, followed by China at US$8.7 trillion and the European Union at US$6.4 trillion. Emissions linked to Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco between 1988 and 2015 resulted in US$3 trillion in cumulative global economic damages by 2020, the study also said.
[5] But the authors found the largest share of climate damages lies ahead. “We were surprised not only by the overall magnitude of estimated damages, which are in the tens of trillions of dollars, but also by how much larger future damages from past emissions are than past damages from past emissions,” Burke said.
[6] One tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused about US$180 in global damages by 2020, but was expected to inflict a further US$1,840 through 2100 – roughly 10 times the costs already incurred. This is because CO2 has a long lifespan, lingering in the atmosphere and contributing to warming for decades to come. For this reason, “settling debts for past damages will not settle debts for past emissions”, the authors wrote.
[7] Even under relatively conservative assumptions, the cost per tonne of carbon emitted is far higher than many government estimates. The research also highlights how high-emitting activities such as air travel contribute to future damage. Taking a long-haul flight each year over a decade, for example, could generate around US$25,000 in losses by 2100. As emissions rise and poorer nations bear the brunt, wealthy countries and fossil fuel businesses are facing mounting scrutiny over their disproportionate role in driving climate damage.
Source: Agence France-Presse, March 25
Content provided by British Council
